2. New Construction Moved North of US 380
Most of the remaining land is in north McKinney and the city's extraterritorial jurisdiction (ETJ). Community Impact reported in July 2025 that single family permits rose almost 25% from 2023 to 2024, with several north McKinney neighborhoods among the top permit generators. The big projects:
- Painted Tree: about 1,100 acres and 3,800 homes, McKinney ISD.
- Trinity Falls: about 2,000 acres and more than 5,200 homes, McKinney ISD, in two MUDs.
- Highland Lakes: 451 acres and 1,374 homes, Prosper ISD, expected completion in 2028.
- Aster Park: over 1,100 homes, gated, Prosper ISD.
- Erwin Farms and Eliana, smaller and further along.
Two more planned MUDs, Honey Creek and Colmena Ranch, are expected to add thousands of homes in the northwest, per the same report.
What it means: North McKinney buyers compete with builders, not just other sellers. Owners in 10 to 20 year old homes nearby need to price against new homes with incentives. Details by community are in New Construction Communities in McKinney.
3. More "McKinney" Homes Are Outside McKinney's City Limits
As growth pushes to the edges, a larger share of homes with McKinney mailing addresses pay taxes to other cities or to special districts. Three examples with 2026 base rates per $100 (school, city, county, and college, before any PID):
| Community |
City that taxes it |
2026 base rate |
Special district |
| Painted Tree, Ridgeline |
McKinney |
About 1.71 |
None stated by builders |
| Simpson Crossing |
Lowry Crossing |
About 1.46 |
PID, about $3,430 to $4,610 per lot per year |
| Eastridge |
Princeton |
About 1.77 |
PID, about $2,256 to $2,527 per lot per year |
| Trinity Falls |
None (outside city tax jurisdiction) |
About 2.28 including MUD No. 1 |
MUD |
The Trinity Falls figure uses the 2025 MUD No. 1 rate of 0.9847, since the 2026 rate hadn't been adopted when I checked. Collin County also raised its rate for 2026 to 0.151414, its first increase in 33 years per Community Impact. Meanwhile, the City of McKinney held its rate flat at 0.412284.
What it means: Two homes at the same price can carry very different monthly payments. Compare the escrow line, not the list price. My McKinney tax, PID, and MUD guide goes deeper.
4. McKinney National Airport Starts Commercial Flights
The City of McKinney says Avelo Airlines begins service on Nov 11, 2026, the same day the new terminal opens. The 46,000 square foot terminal at 1910 FM 546 opens with four gates (expandable to six) and a 980 space parking lot. First routes, per the city: Fort Myers starting Nov 11, Las Vegas and Orlando on Nov 12, and Fort Lauderdale and Tampa on Nov 19. The commercial airport code is DTX; general aviation keeps the FAA code TKI.
What it means: East and south McKinney get a closer airport for leisure trips, which helps the case for those areas. It also means more traffic near the airport and more flights overhead. If you're buying east of US 75, check the flight paths and visit at different times of day.
5. The US 380 Bypass and Spur 399 Will Reshape North and East McKinney
TxDOT plans an eight lane controlled access freeway through north McKinney as part of the US 380 project. Community Impact reported in December 2024 that the Collin County wide 380 program is expected to cost nearly $8 billion, that TxDOT had started buying right of way in McKinney, and that three businesses at University Drive and Walnut Grove Road closed because of the acquisitions. At that time, McKinney's segment had a 2027 "ready to let" date.
Separately, Spur 399 widening in southeast McKinney started in 2025. Community Impact's December 2025 report says the first segment is expected to finish in summer 2029, with the long term plan to extend Spur 399 around the city to US 380.
What it means: Homes near the planned alignment face years of construction, and a few properties will be acquired. Over the long run, better east to west access should help north McKinney values. Before you buy along University Drive or the northern edge, pull up TxDOT's schematic for that stretch.
6. The Outer Loop Connects North McKinney to Celina
Collin County opened Outer Loop Segment 3C on Nov 7, 2025, per Community Impact. It runs 8.9 miles from Custer Road to US 75 and completes a route from the Dallas North Tollway in Celina to US 75 in McKinney. It's two lanes for now. The long term design is a 10 lane freeway with service roads, and more segments are in design.
What it means: North McKinney communities like Trinity Falls and Highland Lakes are now a straighter drive to Celina and Prosper. That widens the pool of buyers who will look at north McKinney. It also means more traffic on roads that were rural two years ago.
7. Big Employers Are Coming to McKinney Itself
On July 13, 2026, the city announced that LITEON will invest $919 million in a North American manufacturing campus in McKinney, with at least 600 new jobs in engineering, advanced manufacturing, and corporate operations. It's using more than 650,000 square feet of existing industrial space at Core5 Logistics Center and a new industrial park.
Community Impact also reported in August 2026 that McKinney has permitted more than $1.1 billion in industrial investment since 2020, and that the Sunset Amphitheater on US 75 (about 20,000 seats) is expected to open in 2027.
What it means: More people can live and work in McKinney without the US 75 or Tollway commute. That supports rental demand near the industrial areas and resale demand for homes on the east and south sides. More on this in McKinney's economy and top employers.
8. Prices Have Flattened and Buyers Have Room to Negotiate
Redfin's McKinney data for August 2026:
- Median sale price: $511,000, down 3.5% from a year earlier
- Homes sold: 760, down 11.3%
- Median days on market: 49
- Sale to list ratio: 97.7%
- Homes with a price drop: 48.2%
- Median price per square foot: $202, down 1.2%
ZIP code medians on Redfin also show the spread: 75072 (west, Stonebridge Ranch area) at $559,008 in August 2026; 75070 at $465,000 in August; 75069 at $458,898 in July; and 75071 at $435,903 in July.
A caution on those numbers: Redfin's "McKinney" includes McKinney mailing addresses outside city limits, and other sources report different August counts. Use them as direction, not precision.
What it means: With nearly half of listings taking a price cut, buyers can ask for concessions on resale homes, not just new builds. Sellers need to price right on day one.
9. New Home Incentives Set the Ceiling for Resale
Builders have a lot of finished inventory. Residential Strategies counted 12,317 finished vacant new homes across DFW at the end of 2025. Zonda reported that 82% of communities nationally offered incentives on quick move in homes in September 2026. With the Freddie Mac 30 year fixed average at 7.32% for the week of Oct 22, 2026, a builder offering a rate in the 3% to 5% range has a real payment advantage.
What it means: If your resale is within a few miles of an active builder, your buyer is comparing your price against a new home with a buydown. Sellers who offer a credit for a rate buydown often compete better than sellers who only cut price. Buyers should run both scenarios. As a loan officer, this is the comparison I build for clients most often.
10. Schools Are Being Rebalanced From South to North
McKinney ISD closed three elementary schools at the end of the 2025 to 2026 school year (Eddins, McNeil, and Wolford) and redrew all attendance zones for 2026 to 2027. The district cited projected growth in the north and decline in the south. It also shifted students away from McKinney North High School, which had been projected to pass 3,200 students by 2030 to 2031. Nov 3, 2026 ballot items include a tax rate election and about $500 million in bonds, which include two new elementary schools.
What it means: School assignments for older south and west McKinney neighborhoods changed, so listing flyers may be out of date. North side buyers should expect more change as new schools open. Full detail is in the McKinney Schools Guide.
What This Adds Up To for Buyers and Sellers
If you're buying
- You have real negotiating room. Nearly half of McKinney listings took a price cut in August 2026, and homes that have sat past the 49 day median are the best place to ask.
- Price your tax setup before you fall for a house. A PID or MUD can add several thousand dollars a year.
- Check road plans. The 380 bypass, Spur 399, and Outer Loop all touch north and east McKinney.
If you're selling
- Price against new construction within five miles, including its incentives.
- Consider a buyer credit for a rate buydown instead of only cutting price. It can lower the buyer's payment more than an equal price cut.
- Disclose your current school zone accurately. Many listings still name closed campuses.
If you're weighing areas, see up and coming areas in McKinney, McKinney investment property areas, and current McKinney homes for sale.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is McKinney's population in 2026?
The NCTCOG estimate is 232,291 as of Jan 1, 2026, up from 195,308 in the 2020 Census.
Are McKinney home prices going down?
Slightly. Redfin's August 2026 median was $511,000, down 3.5% from a year earlier, with 48.2% of homes taking a price drop.
When does McKinney National Airport start commercial flights?
Avelo Airlines starts service on Nov 11, 2026, when the new terminal opens, per the City of McKinney.
Where will the US 380 bypass go?
Through north McKinney as an eight lane controlled access freeway, per TxDOT plans reported by Community Impact. Check TxDOT's schematic for specific streets.
Is the Collin County Outer Loop open in McKinney?
Yes. Segment 3C opened Nov 7, 2025, from Custer Road to US 75, as a two lane road.
Is now a good time to buy in McKinney?
The August 2026 data favors buyers on negotiation: prices dipped, the median home took 49 days to sell, and nearly half of listings cut price. Whether it's right for you depends on how long you'll stay and your payment, so run the numbers with taxes and rate included.
Talk Through Your Plan With PJ
If you're trying to time a move or decide between a resale and a new build, send me your target area and budget through the contact form on this site. I'll show you the recent sales, the active competition, the tax math, and loan options side by side, from one person who handles both the home and the mortgage.
Sources: NCTCOG 2026 Population Estimates; Community Impact, north McKinney housing (Jul 2025); City of McKinney tax information; Collin County Tax Assessor, 2026 Tax Rates and Exemptions by Jurisdiction; Community Impact, Collin County tax rate (Sep 2026); Community Impact, McKinney budget (Sep 2026); Torelli Properties, MUD rates; Lowry Crossing, Simpson Road PID; City of McKinney, Avelo service (Jun 2026); Community Impact, US 380 bypass (Dec 2024); Community Impact, Spur 399 (Dec 2025); Community Impact, Outer Loop (Nov 2025); City of McKinney, LITEON (Jul 2026); Community Impact, McKinney industrial development (Aug 2026); Community Impact, Sunset Amphitheater; Redfin McKinney housing market (Aug 2026); Redfin ZIP data; The Real Deal, DFW housing starts (Jan 2026); Zonda (Oct 2026); The Mortgage Reports, Freddie Mac rate (Oct 2026); Community Impact, MISD attendance zones (Dec 2025); McKinney ISD bond and tax rate election.
